This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.
My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) was down the most in March but recovered about 35% of the loss in April leaving Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) the dubious honor of being my worst performer, down over 30% in the first four months of the year.
April showed improvement as many companies reported positive earnings reports or beat expectations.
Most of my picks improved. Higher food prices no doubt helped Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) which recaptured losses moving up 23% from its recent bottom. My two winners Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) were joined by a third, Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) which had a 10% swing entering positive territory.
After three months it is time to face the facts: two of the three indices beat my picks handily. I have not made a good showing so far and unlike most investment idea sources, I feel obliged to air my dirty laundry for all to see.
My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE:NCT) is down almost 37% this year, and the energy stocks did almost as poorly even though fuel prices are near all-time highs. The downers were not offset by this months' repeat winners.
March was a seesaw battle, but in the end there was not much to show for it. However, unlike the last day of January (down 370 points in the Dow) and February's last trading day (down 315 points), March had a final day of plus 46.49, which is not very meaningful.
Most of my picks sagged a little more, while two remain in positive territory. Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor is up and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) is way up.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Apple, AstraZeneca and KLA-Tencor were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Thomas Weisel upgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Overweight from Market Weight, citing a re-set in FY08 expectations and expected growth from Mac market share gains, accelerating iPhone revenue growth and increased iPhone ASPs.
WestLB upgraded shares of AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) to Add from Hold as they believe the company's growth in core franchises are being overlooked.
Citigroup upgraded KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) to Buy from Hold , as they believe several near-term catalysts are likely to develop against an increasingly favorable cyclical backdrop. They think KLAC's near-term business is better than most think and maintain a $56 target on the stock.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman upgraded Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) to Buy from Neutral and added shares to the Conviction Buy List.
UBS (NYSE: UBS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill and added to the Europe 1 List.
Jefferies raised comScore (NASDAQ: SCOR) to Buy from Hold.
In a deal that values Global Ship Lease at about $500M, the Wall Street Journal reported that Marathon Acquisition Corp. (AMEX: MAQ) is expected to acquire a majority stake, or 66%, in the firm that acquires and charters vessels to container shipping companies.
Activist investors are moving in on Circuit City Stores Inc (NYSE: CC), which is expected to result in a change of management as the company's turnaround efforts have failed and many investors have jumped ship, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street".
The mining industry is consolidating, Business Week noted, and investment pro Richard Steinberg, sees Anglo American Plc (NASDAQ: AAUK) as a possible takeover target due to its sizable deposits of platinum and ferrous and nonferrous metals.
Perfect World Co Ltd (NASDAQ: PWRD), a big player in China for online gaming, has seen its share price shoot up to $37 in October, up from $16 back in July, Business Week reported, and then slide back down to $21.90, attracting investors again.
Business Week reported that investors are flocking to overseas investments and opportunities as they have become spooked by Bear Stearns' collapse, and the prospect of a protracted U.S. financial crisis or recession. John Maloney, president of M&R Capital Management says it makes sense to put money in non-U.S. investments, particularly in Liberty Global Inc (NASDAQ: LBTYA), a major cable company.
The currency of our realm, the US Dollar, has been losing value for many years, but lately the results of this sad state of affairs have become increasingly more evident. Concerns are mounting on a global basis not just in the United States. The euro, once pegged at a buck, is now trading at $1.55, while gold has passed $1,000 and oil has continued its charge, breaking through the $110 per barrel mark.
While a good deal of this problem is home grown, the pain is being felt all around the world. We have read many stories about how the American economy is a smaller part of the global economy and becoming somewhat detached. This is nonsense. What has happened is that the global economy has become infinitely more integrated and like any integrated structure (the architect speaking), what occurs in one place is felt everywhere.
The Federal Reserve Board, led by Chairman Ben Bernanke, has been watching the economy in an extremely measured fashion, bordering on casual. To those who see beyond Bernanke's calm demeanor, one should imagine a stock trader of old, holding the ticker tape up to his eyes and monitoring every change, every blip in the market as the ticker tape machine clicks away, spewing out the latest market activity.
Earlier in the week I posted about finding the market bottom using that age-old handheld calculator, a white paper napkin. So, unfortunately it looks like I may be right again. Not exactly something I was hoping for, but if it has to be, it has to be. I wonder if my old napkin can outperform Wall Street super computers?
Is this an auction to the bottom? Are investors bidding things down instead of up? Looks like it from all the negative sentiment. Consumer sentiment is down, and short sellers are all excited, increasing their negative positions to new highs every day.
And here is the all-telling sign of capitulation: the ever-lying overly optimistic government is starting to admit how bad things are and throwing hundreds of billions of dollars at the problem. When does the turnaround come?
Well folks, I have been following Anglo American plc (ADR) (NYSE: AAUK) for quite some time now. We own it in one portfolio, but recently I missed what now looks like a great opportunity to load up on it for the long haul.
In January the stock was trading under $25 for a few days but I was on vacation -- I'm forced to take one every so often by my family, I'm sure some of you know how that is. This was the week the DJIA dropped over 500 points one day when Bernanke dropped the Fed rate by a full point.
When I returned I set a stock alert for $26 per share thinking this would be doable. Unfortunately the lowest price it was available at in February was $27.20, intraday, on the 5th. It has only gone up since and closed yesterday at $33.28. It is trading up $1.35 mid-day to $34.63. All I can do is keep watching for another opportunity and be patient.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.Disclosure: I own shares of AAUK.
Two months into the year and investors' true 'metal' was tested, and mine more than most. February showed signs of improvement over January, but the last week ended hopes of any rally. The last day of January saw a 370 point drop in the Dow and February's last trading day closed with similar results, down 315 points.
The soft stock market did display many points worth noting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was about break even for the month, indicating investors were showing some signs of support for large cap stocks, prompted in part by news of increased profits at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and share buy-backs at IBM Corp (NYSE: IBM).
Some of my picks also sagged a little more, although not as much, while two turned into positive territory. In January, only Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech, defense contractor, was up. In February, the weak dollar and inflation concerns boosted Anglo American plc (ADR) and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) -- two commodity plays.
It seems investors the world over are rediscovering the precious metal after years of neglect. How could you expect anything else with social unrest, war and recession fears on the front pages of every newspaper, with China and India growing rapidly, placing high demand on all commodities, and with a head-in-the-sand administration just now lifting itself up to take a gander at the last few months of its dubious leadership.
Despite recession fears, there is also the serious possibility of dramatic inflation in the next few years based on deficit spending, the ever expanding federal government and lack of concern for the value (buying power) of the currency. It's pitiful. Gold has been an historic hedge against inflation, so why should now be any different?This has ignited one of my 2008 picks Chasing Value: Anglo American (AAUK) is down...but!, which has moved up sharply in the last week.
I do not know where the ceiling is on gold prices, but it does not seem historically high, and I still think AAUK and FCX belong on everyone's watch list.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of AAUK.
January was a wild ride and February holds the promise of more of the same after yesterday's 370 point drop in the Dow. All the major indices were down in January and so were seven of my eight picks. Only Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, was up. My two high flyers from last year, Huaneng Power International, Inc. (ADR) (NYSE: HNP) and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), were the biggest losers.
Among the indices, the DJIA lost the least and the NASDAQ lost the most. The average return for my eight picks was -7.82%. This underperformed the average of the indices that was -7.58% -- but my new stalking horse Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) bested both, so Buffett is still the man.
Now including dividends for my picks which average 3.91% divided by 12 for the one month allows for an additional .326%, reducing the loss to -7.494%. Using 1.8% for the average dividend of the indices divided by 12 adds 0.15%, reducing the loss to -7.43%. The dividends tighted things up. BRK.B does not pay a dividend.
The following are my eight picks with the starting share price as of December 28, 2007:
Among the many investment pontificators you will find in the media, I pride myself on laying everything out on the table, good calls, bad calls and even my unfortunate periodic stupidity. All of my 2008 picks are down to a varying degree, making me look none too smart in the opening weeks of the year.
Among the stocks I like, Anglo Amercican PLC (NASDAQ: AAUK) has gone down from the $30 level where I recommended it to around $25 a share today. Its 52-week low is $23.38, and its high was $38.75. It pays a dividend currently yielding about 2%.
There has been a push to get big in copper, and all of the news out of South America supports this theme. Meanwhile MarketWatch reported China now world's largest gold producer; foreign miners at door. China is now producing more gold than South Africa, which has been the top producer since 1905.
The price-to-cash flow ratio has been repeatedly promoted in various publications as one of the more important metrics to consider when evaluating a stock to buy. Apparently over long periods of time it is more telling than the often quoted price-to-earnings ratio. I have read that cash flow is a key metric that "my pal Warren" looks at for Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) investments.
Here are the figures for the Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 in order from highest to lowest P/CF. The 12/28/08 starting stock price, yesterday's closing price and the current P/CF for the most recent fiscal year (MRFY) are listed. Only two stocks are up, while six are down.
Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) BG was $119.03, up to $133.00, P/CF 15.99
Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN) RTN was $61.51, up to $61.58, P/CF 13.64
I recently posted Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 and mentioned that all of them pay a dividend. If this year is going to be as gloomy as some would have you believe, then stocks that pay dividends, as a group, will outshine those that do not.
The following are my eight picks, with the closing stock price as of my start date December 28, 2007 and the dividend yield. Last year, there were more stocks among my picks that paid a dividend higher than the S&P 500 Index average of 1.8% . This year there are only two.
A few days behind schedule, but here is my list of eight stocks. Included in the list there are two holdovers from the 2007 list of seven stocks. I do not see any value in creating an entirely new list when I have done well over the years riding the winners. This is particularly true if the reasons you bought the stock in the first place remain valid.
These eight picks for the year will be tracked monthly with updated results. The initial share prices are from December 28, 2007. They are focused on defense, energy, food, gold, metals, mining, oil, power, and every one pays a dividends. The following are my "Quick Takes" in alphabetical order with links to the complete stories.
Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) is a world-class player in precious metals, diamonds, and commodities, which are all growing in demand. When the world economy is booming, all of its mining products are sought after, and when the market runs scared, gold goes up. It pays a dividend yield of 1.9% and is trading almost 25% off its 52-week high. For full story: Chasing Value: Anglo American diamonds and gold are your best friend. The closing price on December 28, 2007, for AAUK was $30.79.
To me Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) is another must-own stock that could end up in M&A discussions, and in this year of uncertainty that's all the more likely. Let's see, it's a global player in diamonds, gold, silver, platinum, coal, and more. This is a currency play, a commodities play, a global play, and an inflation hedge -- got to love that if you can get it at the right price. It was higher, but the closing price on December 28, 2007, for AAUK was $30.79.
Unlike oil prices that may be affected by the weather, new technologies, or alternative sources, these commodities will remain in demand. Gold may be used instead of silver, platinum instead of gold, but except for locating new supplies the demand for these precious metals and commodities can only grow with the growth of the new economies and the wealth of their citizens.
AAUK was one of my better calls during 2007, up about 30%, but I take pause wondering if it will do well based on economic fear driving precious metals up, or whether it will have to rebalance its mining efforts based on less demand for commodities if there is a slow down.
This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.
After three months it is time to face the facts: two of the three indices beat my picks handily. I have not made a good showing so far and unlike most investment idea sources, I feel obliged to air my dirty laundry for all to see.
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The currency of our realm, the US Dollar, has been losing value for many years, but lately the results of this sad state of affairs have become increasingly more evident. Concerns are mounting on a global basis not just in the United States. The euro, once pegged at a buck, is now trading at $1.55, while 
Earlier in the week I posted about 
What's a value investor to do, my oh my...
It was 
Dow. All the major indices were down in January and so were seven of my eight picks. Only 
Oil hits record $127.43 on supply concerns, raised Goldman forecast
Icahn's 'shock and awe' on Yahoo -- a gutsy play
Housing starts surprisingly rise in April on apartment construction
